PVR Wire

1. Yeah, just like you can't buy a Mercedes or BMW anymore since the Yugo totally commoditized the automobile market. ;-)

You can still buy high-end A/V components despite a flood of cheap alternatives. Just because basic capabilities become available cheap doesn't mean a premium product has no place in the market.

And TiVo is working on diversifying, with the Comcast/Cox software. Since it is OCAP, they should be able to bring it to more cable STB platforms. And since OCAP is based on GEM, which is based on MHP, which is used internationally, it may give them a leg-up on porting the software to run on STBs internationally.

Posted at 4:40PM on Jan 22nd 2007 by MegaZone

2. TiVo doesn't have that many customers now. More than half of the customers they do have come from their relationship with DIRECTV, a relationship which is winding down. As a result, TiVo's growth to date, and their prospects for future growth, are not looking too good.

Posted at 4:53PM on Jan 22nd 2007 by BobG

3. Tivo will fall unless they get in bed with a cable or sat company. I think it should be required by all providers (not just cable) to offer other means than their own boxes to get video. So companies like Tivo can continue to come up with good ideas and change the way we watch tv. :)

Posted at 5:48PM on Jan 22nd 2007 by Vince

4. TiVo's standalone business has been increasing, taking on a larger share of their subscriber base. They also hold a significant share in TGC (TiVo Greater China) which sells TiVo in Taiwan and mainland China, and plans to expand to other Asian markets. As TGC is a separate company, their subscribers are not included with TiVo's. TiVo also now has the deal with Cablevision for Mexico City. And the cable software will soon be rolling out with Comcast and Cox, which should add a significant number of subscribers.

There is also the chance of DirecTV returning to TiVo now that Liberty Media, an investor in TiVo, has purchased DTV from News Corp. The whole shift from TiVo to NDS was due to Murdoch owning NDS and buying DTV. With all of the trouble DirecTV has had with the NDS DVR platform, and the constant criticism for dropping TiVo, it is possible. Probably still an outside chance, but with News Corp out of the picture and Liberty in control, the odds improved greatly.

Posted at 6:42PM on Jan 22nd 2007 by MegaZone

5. As much as I despise comcast, if they actually ship a Tivo-based unit that supports multi-room viewing I'd drop DirecTV in a heartbeat.

DirecTV's attempts to force that horrible NDS unit on it's customers is a collosal train wreck. The unit just doesn't work. They had a good thing going with the Tivo-based units but Murdoch's arrogance at not being able to buy Tivo led them down the ruinous path to these miserable NDS-based units.

But try explaining to the wife why the ability we had with SD units to watch across the networks has been lost because of an "upgrade" to using HDTV. Or why the so-called replacement from DirecTV doesn't have Tivo.

The sticking point seems to be the S3's lack of MRV support. If they get their heads out of their asses and get this enabled it'll be a no-brainer to DUMP DIRECTV.

Posted at 12:35PM on Jan 23rd 2007 by Bill Kearney

6. Tivo is hands down the best DVR out there, although they took WAY TOO LONG to get a HD DVR to market...that was a joke. And $800 for the version announced recently....are they CRAZY??? It is better than the cable company version like I said, but not for $800!!! I have (4) HD DVR's through my cable company, and they are not too bad...especially for only a few dollars a month. Tivo is DEAD in the long run, that's my $0.02 anyway.

Posted at 6:42PM on Jan 23rd 2007 by Greg Mauk

7. Just because the stand alone DVR will be a commodity doesn't mean that that commodity can't be a Tivo. Comcast is the largest Cable company. Once the Comcast Tivo rolls out later this year, Tivo will begin it's transition to a Software company. You will still be able to buy a stand alone for extra features but the majority of customers will come from Cable boxes running Tivo software.

Posted at 11:07PM on Jan 23rd 2007 by Wendell

8. I believe that what really needs to happen for Tivo to become a profitable company is for them to slowly exit the hardware market and shift into becoming a software only company. They can license their software to whatever Cable or Satellite companies want to use for their DVR boxes and let them pay a royalty for each box leased. This has pretty much been done since their inception so it isn't THAT radical a departure.

What would be a gigantic leap for them though would be to box and license the Tivo interface directly to the general public for use in our own Home Media computers. This would give both Microsoft and Beyond a HUGE run for their money. Lets face it, both Windows MCE and Beyond are knockoffs of our favorite interface anyway. Why not give us a chance to license and install what most of us would prefer to use anyway? It would pretty much eliminate the most expensive/least profitable segment of the company (manufacturing the hardware) and focus on the most profitable segment (the Tivo interface). Doing this would turn Tivo profitable almost instantly and would enable all of us to enjoy all the features we already know and love as well as giving us the flexibility to customize our Media Centers with the hardware options as we see fit.

Posted at 9:05AM on Jan 28th 2007 by Michael