PVR Wire

Brian Clark of Gizmodo has done a feature on the outlook of TiVo after the release of the Series 3. I don't know if you remember but before the launch of the Series 3 TiVo was getting a lot of bad press about being a company that is not making money and is in trouble.

That bad press seemed to disappear around the launch of the Series 3 but I think we will start to be seeing a lot more from now on. As Gizmodo points out, the outlook for TiVo is not a good one.

I'll outline some of the main concerns regarding TiVo's future:

• TiVo's stock is down significantly since the Series 3 was launched and is about $6.60 compared to a predicted $9.50.
• The number of shared sold internally by TiVo executives outweighs the number bought. This gives an indication that the people running the company have little faith in its immediate future.
• Deals to provide TiVo software to other vendors are sketchy. There is a possible deal with Comcast although no further details have been released and TiVo also has a deal with Cox, but this might not be enough, especially if the Comcast deal falls through.
• Of the 4.5 million TiVo subscribers most are from the recently ended partnership with DirecTV and the cost of acquiring new subscribers has increased by 50%.
• TiVo's long term prospects could be in advertising which is ironic coming from a company that allows you to skip ads.
• TiVo is also bogged down in a lawsuit with Echostar which is yet to be resolved. It will be great for TiVo if it wins, but the lawsuit is far from over with lots of costly court battles ahead.

Clark also mentions that the $800 price tag for the Series 3 was just way too expensive. However, I would have to disagree, its normal business practice to release a high end model at a high price.

We'll see the Series 3 at a respectable price soon enough, it's already beginning to happen.

Interestingly Clark puts out the idea of TiVo been taken over by someone like Microsoft or Apple.

Take a look at the recent article I did on what company might take over TiVo and you'll see that Microsoft and Apple are the least likely companies to take TiVo over.

If it's anyone I think it will be Yahoo, although Dave Zatz disagrees and believes it would be via investor & partner Comcast.