Paul Boutin at Slate thinks the idea of Media Centers dominating the set-top box space in the home is a myth.I think he's wrong.
His article is interesting enough, but it's very much like the old 'PVRs are killing advertising' debate. Every other day, someone like Paul comes along with an argument for, or against. His Slate article isn't really an argument though; he makes some good points, but they're really only his opinion.
The fact is, Media Center technology is still in its infancy. Sky+ and TiVo are still finding their market (there's 1million Sky+ subscribers, but there's 8million Sky Digital subscribers), and PC/Mac PVR technology is still too expensive to be valid as a 'set-top' device.
Why on earth would anyone buy a PC or a Mac to record video when they can buy a decent PVR for $100-$200? Media Center desktops only just went sub-$1000 last year (that includes the Mac Mini), yet they represented 27.7 percent of desktop retail sales in the United States in August 2005.
I reckon the revolution will come in about 2-3 years. Part of the problem is the quality of net-based videos (YouTube, for example) - they're fine for watching at 320x240, but when you display them on a big screen, they look awful. As download speeds increase, so will the quality of net-based video - at which stage, transmitting video over the airwaves, cable or satellite will start to become irrelevant - it'll be delivered via the web, or IP - and distributed wirelessly to your television using PC or Mac-based equipment.
Sky+ and TiVo will eventually evolve into these things. BSkyB are already saying the next Sky+ box will be wireless and TiVo already has wireless capabilities.
And let's face it, Paul sounds like an Apple man - and Steve Jobs simply isn't interested in selling a PVR at the moment because he'd rather sell you a downloadable video than let you record it off-air yourself for free -- he's too focused on the success of creativity tools and the growth of iPod/iTunes products.
1. >>Media Center desktops only just went sub-$1000 last year (that includes the Mac Mini), yet they represented 27.7 percent of desktop retail sales in the United States in August 2005.
And where are these pc's installed and how are they used? I'm extremely skeptical that they're installed in the living room or used for anything but general purpose computing.
Posted at 9:34AM on Aug 8th 2006 by Andrew